Recent developments in Turkey–EU relations

The recent developments in Turkey–EU relations have undergone significant changes. These developments can be analyzed under three main themes:

1. Reframing the Accession Process and Democratic Dialogue

2. Expanding Strategic and Security Cooperation

3. Strengthening Economic and Trade Relations

Below, we explore each area in detail with documented sources.

Recent developments in Turkey–EU relations and reframing the accession process and democratic dialogue

• The Current Status of Accession Talks

While formal accession negotiations began in 2005, discussions have slowed since 2016 due to mutual concerns. However, Turkey remains an important candidate country with continued potential for alignment with EU values and standards.

On May 8, 2025, the European Parliament voted to keep the accession process on pause. Yet, this decision also acknowledged Turkey’s vital geopolitical role and left the door open for future progress, should conditions evolve positively.

• Opportunities for Democratic Engagement

Recent public events and political dynamics have drawn attention across Europe. EU institutions have emphasized the importance of democratic principles, highlighting that progress in this area could significantly enhance Turkey’s standing and pave the way for renewed engagement.

Expanding Strategic and Security Cooperation

• Turkey’s Strategic Importance

As a key player at the crossroads of Europe and Asia, Turkey holds a central position in regional stability. From overseeing the Bosporus and the Black Sea to contributing to regional peace efforts in Syria, Libya, and the Eastern Mediterranean, Turkey remains a vital partner in Europe’s security landscape (EST – European Student Think Tank).

NATO and the EU have increasingly recognized Turkey’s stabilizing role, particularly in counterbalancing regional tensions and supporting collective defense efforts.

• Joint Defense Initiatives

Turkey’s advancements in defense technology have drawn international attention. The launch of the TB3 drone from the TCG Anadolu—an unprecedented global achievement—demonstrates Turkey’s growing capabilities ( Financial Times).

The Turkish Defense Ministry has expressed interest in contributing to the EU’s €150 billion SAFE defense fund and is advocating for greater inclusion of non-EU partners. Turkey has also proposed joint projects with the EU in areas such as drone development, radar systems, naval defense, and electronic warfare.

• Dialogue on Geopolitical Cooperation

The EU is preparing for a “High-Level Geopolitical Dialogue” with Turkey on important regional matters, including the Black Sea, the Balkans, Syria, and the Caucasus.

Recent high-level meetings in Brussels (July 2024), along with collaboration in energy and security, reflect a shared interest in expanding the partnership.

Strengthening Economic and Trade Relations

• Record Trade Volumes

In 2024, trade between Turkey and the EU reached a record-breaking €210 billion, making Turkey the EU’s fifth-largest trade partner.

Exports of automobiles, machinery, and electrical equipment have surged. The EU’s exports to Turkey totaled €112 billion, while Turkey exported €98.4 billion to the EU (policy.trade.ec.europa.eu). This growing interdependence strengthens the case for deeper economic collaboration.

• Modernizing the Customs Union

The EU has proposed updating the existing Customs Union agreement to include services, public procurement, and sustainable development. Although formal negotiations have not yet begun, there is momentum building for modernization and mutual benefit (en.wikipedia.org).

The High-Level Trade Dialogue in July 2024 provided a productive platform to address remaining challenges and strengthen the framework for future trade.

Relationship between Turkey the European

Political Trends and Future Outlook

Experts suggest the following likely paths:

• Continued Strategic Cooperation

Even if accession talks remain paused, targeted collaborations are likely to grow in areas such as defense, energy, and climate.

• Possible Reopening of Accession Negotiations

If democratic reforms progress and regional relations improve (particularly with Greece and Cyprus), renewed membership discussions could be considered.

• Formal Conclusion of Accession Talks (Unlikely)

Although unlikely, this scenario would shift relations toward a structured partnership similar to post-BREXIT models, with continued trade and strategic ties.

• Building Mutual Trust

European leaders are increasingly exploring new pathways for cooperationو beyond the formal accession process. Key focus areas include energy transition, migration management, and climate change resilience (gisreportsonline.com+1en.wikipedia.org+1Financial Times).

Think tanks have emphasized the importance of launching a renewed, forward-looking 20-year dialogue framework by 2025, creating space for innovation and long-term planning.

Challenges and Shared Responsibilities

While some challenges remain, they also present opportunities for cooperation:

• Democracy and Human Rights: Ongoing violations pose a serious threat to continued EU engagement.
• Security Concerns: Turkey’s purchase of Russia’s S-400 systems, involvement in Cyprus, and approach to Kurdish groups worry the EU.
• Mutual Defense Commitments: Turkey seeks access to EU defense funds, but financing is currently limited to EU-based entities.
• Cyprus Crisis: The EU is pushing for renewed negotiations focusing on resolving the Cyprus issue. Southern Cyprus has even extended an invitation to Erdoğan to attend the 2026 summit.

Turkey’s relationship with the European Union

Conclusion and Recommendations